Now, please do not get overconfident when you read this, because who knows how accurate polling information is, but check this out. One of the sites I've been compulsively refreshing dozens of times a day, FiveThirtyEight, has a breakdown of early voting in a couple of key states:
• In Colorado, 65% of poll respondents said they had already voted, and among those early voters Obama has a 17 point lead (58-41). Overall, in Colorado, Obama has a ten point lead (54-44).
• In New Mexico, 56% of poll respondents said they had already voted, and Obama has a 28 point lead (64-36) among those early voters.
Should New Mexico and Colorado become safe Obama states, McCain's only realistic path to victory runs through Pennsylvania. Even if McCain were to win the Keystone, however [...] Obama has a pretty decent firewall in the form of Virginia and Nevada...
And there's already been a ton of people who have already voted in those states.
The Kerry states less Pennsylvania, but plus Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and Virginia, total 270 electoral votes: an ugly, nail-biter of a win for Obama, but still one that would get him to 1600 Pennsylvania all the same.
Let's hope it doesn't come down to that. But wow. I'm having to work really hard to temper my optimism...