Mind you, this election is still very fluid--Obama's lead has broken over the last two weeks and we have five weeks to go--but if the trend continues then Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.
CNN's latest polling shows Obama leading in Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada and Virginia. Earlier polls showed gains in Michigan as well and put Iowa and Indiana in play. Unlike national polling, which is interesting to read as a general temperature check but meaningless in predicting how the electoral college will vote, state-by-state polling is more accurate and tend to reflect the situation on the ground better than the nationals.
Josh Marshall at TPM predicts one of two likely outcomes: Either a slim McCain win or a BIG Obama victory.